PERFECT TIMING FOR A NEW PROJECT - 609 SECOND AVENUE | FALL IN FULL SWING

TIROSH & TEAM JULY 4TH EDITION | NEW UWS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

INTRODUCING MONOGAM NEW YORK | OUR NEWEST CONDO PROJECT

New Year, New Project _ Introducing Our Latest Project in Gramercy Park

August 2023 | Slower Summer | Active Fall?

The Real Deal - April 2023

Spring 2023 - What's Next ?

Lessons we (didn't) learn from Katrina

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While contemplating the future outcome of this wonderfully disastrous mess, I came across this 15-year-old, post Katrina paper. Unbelievably, these were the main lessons, delivering a true déjà vu:

1. Tremendous uncertainty - with no leadership,

2. Moral trial by images –the media was present in early stages more than anyone and projected the images that shaped the face of the crisis.

3. The blame game, between basically everyone including the President’s aids to local officials.

4. Ignoring the early warning signs,

5. Chain reaction and widening of the crisis- as many thought that once the storm is over things will get back to normal while actually when the storm was over, the crisis just began.

If there’s anything we can still implement from these lessons, it would certainly be last point: “as many thought that once the storm is over things will get back to normal while actually when the storm was over, the crisis just began.”

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2020 | Changes to Residential Real Estate Transactions

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As the Real Estate industry scrambles to find ways to manage deals that are in the pipeline during these restrictive times, new solutions are introduced in order to assist with crossing the finish line.

Here’s what you need to know:

·         E-Notary or Virtual Notarization: Governor Cuomo Authorizes 'Virtual Notarization' Until April 18

·         Desktop Appraisal: Eliminating the risk for appraisals and homeowners.

·         Zoom Board Interview: The Cooperative "audition" is adopting social distancing.

·         Virtual Closing: Closings are now happening remotely, allowing buyers and sellers to stay in the safety of their homes.

·         “Corona Rider”: A likely part of every contract from now on, the virus will join other “Force Majeure Events”

·         Movers are an essential workforce under the ‘Tri-State Workforce reduction Order’.

·         Virtual Showing: Real Estate agents, ordered to halt showings and open houses, are developing new ways to maintain engagement with buyers.

The Details:

E-Notary: In general, Real Estate Finance Bureau (“REF”) requires that any signed or notarized documents submitted to REF contain original “wet ink” signatures. That is, REF typically does not accept photocopies or scanned copies of such documents. During the relief period, REF will deem a photocopy or scanned copy of an original signature to be an original signature and thus will not require an original “wet ink” signature on any signed or notarized documents.

(**However, pursuant to New York State laws the original signed and notarized documents will need to be provided for recording, and thus this may not be the ideal route to take. Rather, the parties are better off pre-signing the original documents and delivering them to each other prior to closing. REF does reserve the right to request an original “wet ink” signature as it deems necessary.)

Desktop appraisal: In time of “business as usual” the appraiser is required to conduct a thorough interior inspection of the apartment or home. Currently some banks allow appraisers to conduct appraisals without leaving their desktop, using the data available to the appraiser via third party resources. In the boroughs, another alternative would be a “drive-by” appraisal where the appraiser only inspects the exterior of the appraised house.

Zoom Board interview: NY Notoriously conservative cooperatives have finally come to a point where they must march with the times if they wish to avoid a complete halt of the closing process. Given the current crisis, coop boards began conducting interviews via video conference such as Zoom.

Virtual closings or multi party closings: Outside of New York, remote closings are the rule, not the exception. In NYC closings are usually conducted face to face at the attorney’s office. For closings on condo sales, documents could be passed along via messengers or scanned and electronically signed using DocuSign.

Around the city, sellers and buyers are granting power of attorney to their real estate lawyers, and closings are being conducted with only the essential people present. Those individuals could sit in separate rooms in the same office, or even, separate cars in the same parking lot where the escrow agent executes the forms while hopping from a car of one party to another. Such was the case in a closing one of our Real Estate attorneys conducted during this past week.

Coops closings are more challenging because they require the assistance of the managing agent and delivery of the Seller's original stock certificate and proprietary lease. Also, coop closings usually take place at the managing agency’s office.

Movers are an essential workforce: however, very few Manhattan buildings are allowing “move ins” or “Move outs” at the moment.

Virtual showing: Ordered by NY governor to halt all showings and open houses, agents and salespeople are using other methods to feature their properties, becoming the ‘eye of the buyer’. These methods include live, pre-recorded and “360” video tours of the apartments that are being offered for sale. Execution of “sight unseen” sales have always been a minor portion of transactions taking place in Manhattan. Under the current circumstances that portion is likely to increase somewhat. However, the broader impact, would be an enhanced ability of buyers to filter down their property of choice to a very short list and be ready to pull the trigger as soon as they are able to physically walk the apartment. Residential Real Estate is an up-close and personal business.

This method is also currently used by the parties for the walk-through inspections prior to closing.

Corona Clause: The rider, not commonly used until now, will likely be an integral part of future contracts, stipulating protections awarded to buyers due to “Force Majeure event” (superior force). Such forces include power failure, riot, insurrection, restrictive governmental laws, war, act of terrorism, and act of God (including but not limited to, earthquake, hurricane, epidemic, pandemic or tornado). The Covid-19 coronavirus and/or its consequences needs to be defined and specifically qualify as a Force Majeure Act.

See such sample paragraph below:

Force Majeure Notwithstanding anything contained in this agreement to the contrary, if Purchaser, in good faith, is delayed or hindered in, or prevented from, the performance of any act required hereunder or is prevented from moving into or out of the Unit and/or the building or is prevented from otherwise enjoying the full benefits of this agreement by reason of a strike, labor trouble, inability to get materials or services, power failure, riot, insurrection, restrictive governmental laws, war, act of terrorism, act of God (including but not limited to, earthquake, hurricane, epidemic, pandemic or tornado) or other reasons of a like nature which are beyond the reasonable control of the Purchaser (a "Force Majeure Event"), then the performance of any such act (including the Closing herein) shall be excused for the period of delay and the period of the performance of any such act shall be extended for a period equivalent to the period of such delay. It is agreed and acknowledged that the Covid-19 coronavirus and/or its consequences constitutes a pandemic and qualifies as a Force Majeure Act under this provision. The provisions of this Paragraph 34 are not intended to forgive Purchasers' performance but only to provide Purchaser's with additional time to perform his contractual duties and obligations hereunder provided however, that if the closing is delayed by more than 90 days due to a Force Majeure Event, Purchaser will be entitled to cancel this contract. In the event of such cancellation, the contract deposit and any interest earned thereon shall be returned to Purchaser, whereupon this Agreement shall be null and void and of no further force and effect and all rights, obligations and liabilities hereunder shall wholly cease and come to an end.

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2018 | What is the "New Normal"?

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Dear Friends,

Now that 2017 is behind us and we are settling into 2018, I wanted to share a few thoughts on the accomplishments and challenges of the passing year and an outlook for the year ahead.

This year, we are leaving behind an exceptionally action packed year, one that began with the inauguration of a new US president, and concluded with a surprising comeback of cryptocurrencies and a controversial tax plan which left many scratching their heads.

In the New York Real Estate market, the year began with fears of a market crash and resulted in a fairly active and healthy year. These fears stemmed from the anticipation of another cycle coming to an end, after nearly nine years of a strong market. Softening at the higher end of the market contributed to that notion.

While I can certainly understand the train of thought, given the painful memories of the last recession, from a personal standpoint, I can say that today's real estate market is not exhibiting the symptoms or manic energy we saw leading up to the last recession.

Still, the question remains: Are these fears misplaced for 2018?

To address this and other trends to watch out for in 2018, this month we will focus on a report by the Urban Land institute, “emerging trends in real estate” for 2018. The report speaks to these concerns head on, with experts noting that our immediate future may resemble a smooth glide path as opposed to a nose dive:

“Many in the industry point to signs, such as the very low unemployment rate, a policy shift toward tightening at the Fed, and high asset prices in real estate, as positive indications that investors are getting more defensive and conservative as the cycle stretches out. By achieving more balance, the market may have reached a “new normal” of slow and steady growth.”

Another trend that continued throughout 2017, was the enormous valuation of tech companies. The “new normal” here is that younger companies, who often own no real assets, are valuated as equally, if not higher than older established companies with real estate all over the world. We can use the Related Companies vs. Wework as an example. The former is one of Americas’, most established Real Estate companies, currently building Hudson Yards, with assets all over the world. The latter, is only seven years and only recently purchased their first building.

AirBnB, Uber are some others, not to mention the world’s overlord quintet; Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft.

The main challenge here is that we are comparing apples with oranges; one, an asset – Real Estate - is attached, considered safe, with value, which can be determined fairly simply, and easily; the other is a concept, an idea with an often-arbitrary value...

Stay tuned to what is promised to be a hot topic in the New Year.

Looking back at Urban Land’s report, one of the most relevant topics in real estate for both 2017 and 2018 is the short stock of affordable homes nationwide, with a surplus of potential buyers and no scalable solution. It states:

“Whether it’s urban row houses, transit-oriented development, or a new type of tract housing, practical and affordable mid-market homes, as well as starter homes and affordable rental units for young adults, remain potential goldmines for developers who figure out the right balance of price, land costs, location, and amenities. The higher-end market remains well-served. While margins are still good for those types of projects, building affordable housing at scale, in nearly any urban market in the country, would be welcome.”

Shortage of affordable housing and well-served high end of the market is pretty much the same trend experienced in Manhattan. In this case, I would equate “affordable housing” to the “resale market”; inventory comprised of existing or older apartments, that are not in new development and are usually priced lower.

The latest market report from Douglas Elliman indicates the same trend, citing a 10.9% drop in total inventory from the last quarter. I would argue that this number would be even higher when separated from new development inventory.

There is no relief in sight for that type of product, and while demand is still high, the reduction of real estate taxes and mortgage interest deductions with the recently approved “Tax cuts and Job act” plan will limit current homeowners spending abilities and force them to stay put, reinforcing the cycle as a result.

These are just some of the trends we anticipate in 2018.

I encourage you all to read through this report, which covers a variety of other hot topics including:

· Gen Z joining the fray while Baby boomers at large are not able to retire.

· The rise of the “secondary markets” topped by… Seattle (+ other surprising cities that top the chart)

· Possible opportunities resulting the “Retail Apocalypse” of the last few years.

You can also check out the Real estate blog curbed, which did a good job dissecting the report, in case 123 pages are too long.

On the whole, we anticipate a steady and healthy market throughout 2018, and look forward to follow these trends we’re seeing as they play out.

With that in mind, I’d like to extend a slightly belated Happy New Year to each of you!

Best,

Ariel

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman

917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com

The Annual Wealth Report 2017 | Opportunities and Dangers Around the World

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Dear Friends, 
The early spring buying season and steadiness of the local NYC real estate market are giving us a great opportunity to look at what the wealthiest are doing around the globe, and where they will be spending their money next. 

The fascinating report is extensive; this edition is longer than usual, and for a good reason! 

Knight Frank and Douglas Elliman have just released the Wealth Report 11th edition. This report offers keen insight into the thought leadership that underpins the service provided by Knight Frank’s transactional, consultancy investment and valuation teams based in 413 offices, in 160 countries worldwide. 

It took me about a week, and a snowy day, to dissect the mountain of information. The report was intriguing, exciting, and at the same time concerning, relevant to the unstable global environment we currently live in. Brexit and Trump, India and China, Temporary Space and Airbnb are some of the topics discussed. Wine was apparently the best investment in 2016, and soon you may be able to get a private jet through an app that is not much different from Uber. 

The UHNWI: Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (those with investable assets of at least $30M) prefer to send their kids abroad to be educated, with UK still leading the charts. Additional passports are in greater demand than ever, and a tremendous amount of people will join the exclusive millionaires (and billionaires) club in the next decade. New York will continue to be the number one global concentration of UNHWI, easily overtaking London; although the world’s wealthy are a footloose group, and the place they call home is only a starting point in trying to unravel the location that resonates with them most. 

Ian Bremmer, head of Eurasia Group, one of the world’s leading political risk consultancies, opens by saying: 

“I’d like to think I’m a pretty optimistic guy, but 2017 is the most significant year for political risk since World War II.” 

In an interesting article, he ranks the top 10 global risks: #3 is a weaker Markel (of Germany), a position that puts the EU in jeopardy; #2 is China overreacting (to Trump’s actions); and at the top of the list, Independent America. Evil forces are lurking in the dark; short of Batman, Gotham would become a (more) dangerous place. 

In this “post-truth world,” uncertainty has never been greater. Yet despite this, the global UHNWI population continues to grow, with an anticipated 31% additional UHNWI in North America by 2026, and by 91% in Asia at the same year. 

New Horizons: Some new global hotspots include India, which in a bold move late last year cracked down on its notorious “black economy” with the withdrawal of high denomination notes and new legislation, sending a powerful message about the government’s determination to modernize the economy and reduce corruption. 

Another excellent example is the sub-Saharan countries, with a youthful population, and 60% of the world’s unplanted arable land that can be an ideal solution to growing global pressure on food production. 

It’s not all rosy in the ultra-rich world. As the movement of wealth around the world continues to increase, so too does the desire of governments to regulate and control it.  The growth in regulatory activity based on understanding where private wealth sits globally will surge further in 2017, ahead of the introduction of the OECD’S (The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which will enable governments to exchange an unprecedented amount of financial data of foreign citizens. 

“Demand for new nationalities is highest from China, Russia and the Middle East, with around 4/5ths of U.S. EB-5 Visas going to Chinese nationalists.” 

Private aviation is another growing area for UHNWI. Although only 15% of this group uses private aviation for the majority of their flights, new apps and charter models that are competing to be the Uber of the airways will increase the use of private jets, rivaling the expense of first and business class on commercial flights. 

Good schools are a key driver of the housing market, but UHNWI from a growing number of countries are choosing to educate their kids overseas. Although the U.S., Switzerland, Australia, and a number of other countries all attract international students, the UK private boarding schools are still seen as the gold standard by many. Furthermore, the weakened British Pound positions UK’s private education as the best value. 

“Having your children make friends with lots of people of different nationalities is considered very attractive.“

Research into the world’s key prime residential property markets reveals a significant and growing gap between the top and bottom performers. “The top tier is dominated by cities in China, New Zealand, Canada and Australia, while oil-dependent markets such as Moscow and Lagos bring up the rear.“

Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou are all experiencing a huge appreciation of over 26%! During 2016. New York trailed far behind in 22nd place, with a modest 3.5% increase during that year. 

City vs. Beach; The value of a city-based luxury home increased by 2.4% on average, while a beach coastal property slipped marginally by 0.5%. 
Future View: Brexit and Trump took many by surprise. The same will not be true in 2017; Investors are now well aware that anything is possible when voters are called to the ballot box. Elections in Netherlands, France and Germany will have many looking to stay ahead of unfavorable results, with money on the move to safe havens. 

The American Empire: A strong dollar will reinforce the spending power of America’s wealthy, and persuade capital elsewhere in the world that it would be better off spent in U.S.-based income-producing investments while exchange rates find their true levels. Investors will feel it is safer to sit out the storm amid the comparative calm of a growing American economy.  

Although the narrative surrounding China’s economy shifted from “opportunity” to “risk” after the financial crisis, in 2017 Asia’s economy will begin to “pay dividends” as the threat of western protectionism recedes, and domestic consumption creates a more self-reliant Asia.  

Temporary space: Geopolitical issues aside, the single-biggest trend shaping the investment pattern globally is digital disruption. Take Airbnb and similar sites as an example, and the way city authorities are struggling to work out how to police this process, with concern over the impact on both hotels and full-time residents. Expect investors to focus on these emerging sectors, with the world’s leading cities as the main investment targets. 

We hope you enjoy the report, which is fully included in this link. 

Please let us know if you would like a hard copy and we will send it to you.  From snowy New York, we wish you a happy early spring. 

Thanks for reading, 
Ariel 

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman

917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com

January 2017 | 2nd Ave Subway | High Expectations for 2017

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Dear Friends,      

Here’s a great start for a new year; the Second Avenue Subway is up and running!!   

During our “trial run” down the new line we observed newer systems and technologies, much like the ones we have seen in other stations. The platforms are wider.  The tracks, obviously new, are clean and drain properly (no rodents!).                                                                                                                       

Some of the entrances require that you take an elevator ride down to the platform, similar to some Brooklyn stations, which can be unpleasant during rush hours. One surprise we enjoyed very much is that each of the new Second Avenue subway stations – 96th,86th, 72nd and 63rd streets – is decorated with contemporary art murals featuring works by Sarah Sze, Chuck Close, Vik Muniz and Jean Shin.   

Most importantly - Upper East Side residents, retailers and pedestrians along Second Avenue who’ve endured this prolonged construction project and the increased noise and air pollution it generated, have regained their quality of life. Surrounding blocks can finally resume some semblance of NYC normalcy, with the added bonus of easier access to mass transportation. They can also anticipate increases in property values along the subway line.   

In our 2011 Market report video we predicted that the track will extend down to the lower east side by 2020. As it stands today, the next phase is on hold. 

As 2016 drew to a close, Manhattan sales volume slipped from 2015 levels but remained much higher than long term norms. The luxury market (top 10% of all sales) set records for average sales price and average price per square foot largely from the closing of new development sales contracts signed one or two years ago, as construction on those developments reaches completion. Some of that volume can also be attributed to savvy and able buyers who were able to negotiate significant discounts on properties at the “soft” high end of the market.

Listing inventory is slightly larger than last year, but still tight, a cause for concern to the buyers who are pressed to get off the sidelines due to rising rates.   

There is a lot to look up for in 2017; a new president (and possibly new personal and corporate tax breaks), the scale of rising interest rates, the continued development of Hudson Yards in Midtown West and Essex Crossing in the Lower East Side and upcoming mayoral elections in November, to name a few.   
We expect a healthy real estate market for the coming year.     

Happy and healthy 2017, and thanks for reading.  

Ariel 

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman
917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com

Fall 2016 | New York Times Returns to the Lower East Side

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Dear Friends,  

As we enter a beautiful autumn in the city, the noise around Real Estate muffles the fact it is almost business as usual. 

The high end of the market that dominates the conversation and is drawing unproportioned attention lacks importance to 99% of buyers and sellers. The word on the street is that uncertainty leading up to the presidential election is causing hesitation in that sphere. 

In the middle market, buyers are seeking higher discounts when purchasing, and inventory is on the rise (though not enough to brag about). These signs seem to be bringing us closer to a…. “normal” market; something we are not accustomed to in our exuberant environment. 

High rental prices, low interest rates and tax benefits are still the best arguments for home ownership, especially in the “middle” market where buyers are able to identify an appropriately-priced home. 

The 3rd Quarter 2016 Manhattan Report by Douglas Elliman Real Estate is attached with further specifics. 

In this edition, we feature our newest condo project at 242 Broome Street in the mega Essex Crossing Development. 

“In the heart of the Lower East Side of Manhattan lies Essex Crossing, an unprecedented development comprising 1.9 million square feet of residential, commercial and community space. The nine sites on six acres, commonly known as the Seward Park Extension Urban Renewal Area (SPEURA), have sat mostly vacant since 1967 and represent one of the most significant urban renewal developments in the history of New York City.” 

This past week, I had the pleasure of speaking to The New York Times about this unique transformation in an article named “Redefining the Lower East Side”.

This is the second time since May that The New York Times has talked to us about the revitalization of the Lower East Side, with growing interest. There is something sexy, gritty, yet cool going on in the neighborhood that other areas of Manhattan cannot offer. We see many buyers moving over from more traditional neighborhoods, inspired by what the LES is poised to become in just a few years. 

We welcome you to stop by our beautiful sales gallery located at 92 Orchard Street and check it out. Perhaps you could use the opportunity to lunch at Kossar’s Bagel or Katz’s Deli.

As we conclude, I’d like to wish everyone a happy holiday season. 

Thanks for reading,

Ariel

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman
917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com

June 2016 | Brexit or Bremain?

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Dear Friends,

Summer of 2016 is off to a steamy start; The Brexit (Britain Exit Euro) is a big ticket nowadays and is the most exciting global event that could impact New York’s real estate.

According to a new report by the brokerage firm Knight Frank, fears of an EU exit are putting a damper on London’s luxury real estate market.

Paired with a recently increased UK stamp tax on the purchase of secondary homes, London could lose its prime place as THE international investment destination to its longtime rival – The Big Apple (the new stamp tax on a purchase of a second home of $2,900,000 will reach an aggressive sum of $290,000!).

International buyers seeking political stability and a strong economic environment may be further drawn to purchase properties in New York City and other parts of the country. On the other hand, this could be a double-edged sword.

If Britain does leave the UE, financial markets around the world, including the US, may not be immune to the ripple effects. In any case, we’ll find out soon enough on June 23rd.

Meanwhile in NYC, it seems like the market is moving sideways: great activity in some areas, very quiet on others. If the attitude of buyers toward overpriced property over the last couple of years was of curiosity and possible engagement, today they will not engage in such properties, and often, will not see them.

The environment that allowed average properties to be priced as premium is no longer prevalent in this market.

With that, one of the indicators of the current state of the market is traffic of contracts signed over $4M, which has been quite strong: Over the past 30 days, 122 contracts were signed, with 35 over the past week alone.

“One reason for the one-week surge is this: The average property was on the market for a lengthy 311 days, which finally prompted exasperated sellers to face reality and drop their prices an average of 11% from the original asking price. The luxury market is bloated and choking with a lot of overpriced inventory, but once sellers capitulate and adjust to realistic price levels, the market moves,” writes Donna Olshan of the Olshan Report.

With an election year never seen before, London being anxious, and the streets of Paris mobbed by Russian and British “soccer tourists,” it promises to be an interesting summer.

Lastly, in this edition we are featuring an outrageously beautiful and equally unique Park Avenue apartment with fantastic Central Park and city views.

Thanks for reading. Have a great summer.

Ariel

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Highlights

Long Beach NY, one of the best of beaches

Oldie but goodie. Billy Crystal in a short clip about beautiful Long Beach, New York…

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Italian architect's new project, "The Floating Piers”. The illusion of “walking on water”…

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Future Co-Living is planned for Jersey City

WeWork's third project of its kind is looking to shape the future of Urban Habitat…

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman
917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com

March 2016 | New York Times Tours The Lower East Side

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Dear Friends,

April opened as one of the best months of the year, with improved weather and surprising market data shaping the first quarter of 2016. As you may recall in our last communication, we predicted that the number of sales would drop to between 2,200 and 2,500 for the first quarter of 2016. We were pleasantly surprised to learn that the number was considerably higher, at 2,877 – even better than Q1 2015! At the same time, listing inventory increased by 9%, providing some buyers with a better selection.

“Calculated” is the word I would use to describe seller and buyer behavior at this time. Buyers tend to purchase within their means or a little over, largely because of current interest rates paired with peaking rents. There’s no question that buying beats renting in Manhattan today. That said, we expect a healthy spring/summer market, with anticipated price corrections and increased inventory.

One area in Manhattan I am particularly inspired by is the Lower East Side, where I’ve marketed numerous condo projects over the last decade. The LES used to be, and still is, a place for new beginnings. In an interview appearing in this past Sunday’s New York Times Real Estate section, I had a chance to share that view. It’s a great read about what is currently happening in the LES.

We conclude parting with Zaha Hadid, a true genius architect called the “Queen of Curves” and the one who “bent skylines”; as well as an article about the temporary shutdown of the L train, and a review of the EB-5 Visa (aka, pay $500K and get a green card) fueling many developments in the city today.

Thanks for reading. We wish you a fantastic spring and holiday season.
Ariel

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman
917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com

2016 | What can you expect of the spring market?

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Dear Friends,

A lot can be said about the opening of 2016; most of all, it certainly wasn't boring. This is due to a cooled-off real estate market, financial market turbulence, crashing oil prices, a “colorful” presidential campaign, and one very mild winter that made it interesting for us all.

With so much drama, nervousness can cause some to pause. It’s therefore no wonder that the real estate market in New York City slowed during the beginning of this year. To make matters worse, our presidential candidates can’t seem to stop talking about our country’s problems (which of course, only they can solve).

Personally, I’m with Warren Buffet, who in his annual shareholders letter released Saturday 2/27, wrote that the politicians are “dead wrong”. He says, “The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history. American GDP per capita is now about $56,000 – six times the amount in 1930… America’s economic magic remains alive and well.”

Zooming in on our market, I also think that a decrease from over 3,600 transactions in the 3rd Q 2015 or 2,973 in the 4th Q 2015, to a more sustainable level, say 2,200 – 2,500 transactions for apartment sales in Manhattan, is not necessarily a bad thing. Rapidly rising prices, tight inventory and bidding wars should be the abnormal, not the normal.

Looking at several new developments we are working on and our city’s new development projects, new condos will have to be very “gentle” with their pricing, and offer a much better product to beat the competition and sell apartments. Resale product (apartments for sale, not in new developments) is still very tight. Buyers today are faced with a less-than-ideal selection of properties, yet at the same time, rising rents and low interest rates still make a compelling case for buying.

Overall, I’m optimistic about 2016 and looking forward to seeing mild price growth, additional resale inventory, beautiful, high-quality new buildings, and an early Spring!

The fantastic image above is a rendering from our featured new condo project at 100 Norfolk in the Lower East Side, with an expected closing the end of the year.

Thanks for reading, and have a beautiful ‘pre-spring’ season!

Ariel

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Ariel Tirosh & Team

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman
917.750.5654 | atirosh@elliman.com